?
Checks that every page is rendered from one canonical state object and explains the difference between the user alert regime and internal state-machine state.
Canonical State Consistency
Canonical Render ConsistencyPASS
User Alert RegimeBottom Likely
Internal ChartInspect StateStabilisation
Bottom LikelyNo
Lower Low Failure Days49
Active Reliability Cap7.50
State Hash2936aff77a650ef0
| Check | Status | Detail |
|---|
| Watch Vs Exhaustion Explained | Pass | User alert regime=bottom_likely; internal ChartInspect state=stabilisation |
| Lower Low Canonicalized | Pass | canonical=49; monitor=49 |
| Bottom Likely Consistent | Pass | bottom_likely remains false/no |
| Candidate Metrics Not Promoted | Pass | promoted candidates=[] |
| Reliability Cap Present | Pass | active cap=7.5 |
All pages are rendered from one dashboard data object and share the canonical_state block. Watch is the user alert regime; Exhaustion is the internal ChartInspect state-machine state.
?
Shows supporting details for Why this is not bottom likely. Use it as context for the surrounding score, diagnostic, or research summary.
Why This Is Not Bottom Likely
Current User RegimeBottom Likely
Internal Research StateStabilisation
Bottom LikelyNo
Reclaim GateBlocked Candidate Reclaim Not Passed
PIT ReplayBlocked Pit Snapshots Missing
Negative-Control StatusBlocked Negative Control Noise Detected
Reliability Upgrade AllowedNo
Why This Is Not Bottom Likely
- Live user regime is Bottom Likely, while the internal research state is Stabilisation; exhaustion is not a bottom-likely alert.
- Validated aggregate and STH cost-basis reclaim inputs are still missing or blocked, so the reclaim gate is not passed.
- Candidate reclaim gate status is Blocked Candidate Reclaim Not Passed; candidate-only values are not signal inputs.
- Live bottom_likely alerts and the canonical bottom_likely flag are now bound to the guarded state machine; the unguarded engine regime cannot override missing reclaim, PIT, or stabilisation evidence.
- Cross-provider validation status is Blocked Cross Provider Incomplete and PIT replay status is Blocked Pit Snapshots Missing.
- Negative controls show 1075 family-weighted alert days outside true bottom windows, so family evidence alone is noisy.
- Reliability is capped; validation infrastructure and explanatory audits do not raise forward predictive evidence.
What Would Invalidate The Current Read
- A new lower low would reset the lower-low failure clock and weaken stabilisation evidence.
- Provider-definition or cross-provider disagreement would keep NUPL/STH-NUPL-derived reclaim candidates blocked.
- Any PIT replay known-at leakage, stale snapshot, or export hash mismatch keeps reclaim and reliability blocked.
- Any candidate-only metric entering score, state machine, reliability, or alerting would invalidate the current safety lock.
- Negative-control noise in shifted, random, or bull-market guard windows prevents any threshold/reliability upgrade.
Plain-language uncertainty summary only. It does not promote candidate reclaim, change bottom_likely, loosen reclaim, or raise reliability.
?
Ranks candidate signals using prior-only walk-forward validation. This helps avoid choosing a signal that only looked good with hindsight.
Walk-Forward Research Ranking
Recommended CandidateChartInspect Onchain
| Model | Event Recall | Guard Days | Guard Windows | Alert Days |
|---|
| ChartInspect Onchain | 1.00 | 0 | 0 | 115 |
| Conservative Onchain Gate | 1.00 | 0 | 0 | 115 |
| Triangulated Onchain Market Cycle | 1.00 | 0 | 0 | 225 |
| Conservative Extended Onchain Gate | 1.00 | 0 | 0 | 667 |
| Market Capitulation | 1.00 | 34 | 1 | 835 |
| Market Cycle | 1.00 | 34 | 1 | 758 |
All walk-forward folds start at the acceptable alert start, train only on earlier rows, and evaluate later cycle-bottom periods with 180d lead / 120d lag timing tolerance.
?
Measures practical historical entry outcomes after the first bottom alert in each known bottom window, including forward returns, extra drawdown, DCA-after-alert, and simple drawdown baselines.
Strategy Backtest
Threshold95.00
Lead / Lag180d / 120d
DCA Days90
| Strategy | Bottoms Detected | Median 365D Return | Worst 365D Drawdown | Median DCA 365D Return |
|---|
| ChartInspect on-chain alert | 4 / 4 | 62.11 | -44.30 | 81.81 |
| 60% drawdown trigger | 4 / 4 | 38.42 | -57.17 | 41.20 |
| 70% drawdown trigger | 3 / 4 | 51.75 | -43.59 | 125.40 |
Strategy entries are evaluated point-in-time using the first qualifying alert per historical bottom window; returns are forward close-to-close and not financial advice.
?
Shows whether a candidate fired during known non-bottom stress or hype windows. Clean guard windows are required before promotion.
False-Positive Guard Regimes
Recommended CandidateChartInspect Onchain
Guard Alert Days0
False-Positive Guard Windows0
| Regime | Windows | Alert Days | Violated Windows |
|---|
| Bull Top Cooling | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Current Cycle High Price Consolidation | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| ETF Liquidity Hype Drawdown | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Macro Panic Non Cycle Bottom | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mid Cycle Correction | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Post Bottom Recovery | 3 | 0 | 0 |
?
Counts every alert day outside labelled bottom windows, not just selected guard regimes. This is the continuous false-positive density check.
All-History Non-Bottom Alert Density
Threshold95.00
Non-Bottom Days4682
Outside Alert Days63
Outside Alert Clusters30
Longest Cluster Days7
False Positive Density1.35%
Outside Alert Cluster Audit
| Cluster | Start | End | Days | Max | Evidence Family | Nearest Bottom Days | 365D Return | 365D Max Adverse | Classification |
|---|
| 1 | 2014 12 17 | 2014 12 19 | 3 | 100.00 | Valuation Cost Basis | 15 | 42.62 | -44.30 | Provisional Boundary Artifact |
| 2 | 2014 12 21 | 2014 12 21 | 1 | 100.00 | Valuation Cost Basis | 11 | 36.71 | -44.49 | Provisional Boundary Artifact |
| 3 | 2015 04 06 | 2015 04 06 | 1 | 100.00 | Valuation Cost Basis | 37 | 65.97 | -17.61 | Provisional Harmless Early Accumulation |
| 4 | 2015 04 08 | 2015 04 08 | 1 | 100.00 | Valuation Cost Basis | 39 | 72.53 | -14.09 | Provisional Harmless Early Accumulation |
| 5 | 2015 04 12 | 2015 04 12 | 1 | 100.00 | Valuation Cost Basis | 43 | 78.90 | -10.86 | Provisional Harmless Early Accumulation |
| 6 | 2015 04 15 | 2015 04 17 | 3 | 100.00 | Valuation Cost Basis | 46 | 89.55 | -5.96 | Provisional Harmless Early Accumulation |
| 7 | 2015 04 23 | 2015 04 24 | 2 | 100.00 | Valuation Cost Basis | 54 | 88.50 | -10.98 | Provisional Harmless Early Accumulation |
| 8 | 2015 04 29 | 2015 04 29 | 1 | 100.00 | Valuation Cost Basis | 60 | 98.85 | -6.78 | Provisional Harmless Early Accumulation |
| 9 | 2015 05 04 | 2015 05 04 | 1 | 100.00 | Valuation Cost Basis | 65 | 88.40 | -11.93 | Provisional Harmless Early Accumulation |
| 10 | 2015 05 23 | 2015 05 23 | 1 | 100.00 | Valuation Cost Basis | 84 | 83.92 | -11.88 | Provisional Harmless Early Accumulation |
| 11 | 2022 06 13 | 2022 06 13 | 1 | 100.00 | Valuation Cost Basis | 141 | 15.26 | -29.79 | Pending Cluster Review |
| 12 | 2022 06 16 | 2022 06 22 | 7 | 100.00 | Valuation Cost Basis | 138 | 29.17 | -22.54 | Pending Cluster Review |
Cluster Classification Counts
Pending Cluster Review15
Provisional Boundary Artifact5
Provisional Harmless Early Accumulation10
continuous all-history negative-control test: counts every alert day outside labelled bottom windows, not only hand-picked guard regimes.
?
Shows supporting details for Pending cluster state Machine audit. Use it as context for the surrounding score, diagnostic, or research summary.
Pending Cluster State-Machine Audit
Pending Clusters Reviewed15
State Machine Would Filter15
Would Not Filter0
Non-Pending Excluded15
Mature Stabilisation Reclaim Blockers5
Mature Reclaim Blocker Cluster Ids16, 18, 19, 20, 21
Stabilisation Status Counts
Missing Gate Counts
Lower-Low Failure Clock Summary
Clusters With Clock Below 21d10
Clusters With Clock 21d Or More5
Clusters With Clock Missing0
Suggested Guard Counts
Lower Low Failure Or Reclaim Required15
| Cluster | Start | State At Start | Lower Low Failure Days At Start | Stabilisation Status At Start | Filter Verdict | Suggested Guard | Missing Gates |
|---|
| 11 | 2022 06 13 | Exhaustion | 0 | Provisional | Filtered Missing Confirmed Stabilisation Or Reclaim | Lower Low Failure Or Reclaim Required | reclaim, stabilisation |
| 12 | 2022 06 16 | Exhaustion | 0 | Provisional | Filtered Missing Confirmed Stabilisation Or Reclaim | Lower Low Failure Or Reclaim Required | reclaim, stabilisation |
| 13 | 2022 06 24 | Exhaustion | 6 | Provisional | Filtered Missing Confirmed Stabilisation Or Reclaim | Lower Low Failure Or Reclaim Required | reclaim, stabilisation |
| 14 | 2022 06 26 | Exhaustion | 8 | Provisional | Filtered Missing Confirmed Stabilisation Or Reclaim | Lower Low Failure Or Reclaim Required | reclaim, stabilisation |
| 16 | 2022 07 09 | Stabilisation | 21 | Pass | Filtered Missing Confirmed Stabilisation Or Reclaim | Lower Low Failure Or Reclaim Required | Reclaim |
| 18 | 2022 07 17 | Stabilisation | 29 | Pass | Filtered Missing Confirmed Stabilisation Or Reclaim | Lower Low Failure Or Reclaim Required | Reclaim |
| 19 | 2022 07 25 | Stabilisation | 37 | Pass | Filtered Missing Confirmed Stabilisation Or Reclaim | Lower Low Failure Or Reclaim Required | Reclaim |
| 20 | 2022 08 27 | Stabilisation | 70 | Pass | Filtered Missing Confirmed Stabilisation Or Reclaim | Lower Low Failure Or Reclaim Required | Reclaim |
| 21 | 2022 08 31 | Stabilisation | 74 | Pass | Filtered Missing Confirmed Stabilisation Or Reclaim | Lower Low Failure Or Reclaim Required | Reclaim |
| 22 | 2022 09 06 | Exhaustion | 0 | Provisional | Filtered Missing Confirmed Stabilisation Or Reclaim | Lower Low Failure Or Reclaim Required | reclaim, stabilisation |
| 23 | 2022 09 13 | Exhaustion | 7 | Provisional | Filtered Missing Confirmed Stabilisation Or Reclaim | Lower Low Failure Or Reclaim Required | reclaim, stabilisation |
| 24 | 2022 09 16 | Exhaustion | 10 | Provisional | Filtered Missing Confirmed Stabilisation Or Reclaim | Lower Low Failure Or Reclaim Required | reclaim, stabilisation |
| 25 | 2022 09 19 | Exhaustion | 13 | Provisional | Filtered Missing Confirmed Stabilisation Or Reclaim | Lower Low Failure Or Reclaim Required | reclaim, stabilisation |
| 26 | 2022 09 21 | Exhaustion | 0 | Provisional | Filtered Missing Confirmed Stabilisation Or Reclaim | Lower Low Failure Or Reclaim Required | reclaim, stabilisation |
| 27 | 2022 09 27 | Exhaustion | 6 | Provisional | Filtered Missing Confirmed Stabilisation Or Reclaim | Lower Low Failure Or Reclaim Required | reclaim, stabilisation |
Audits only pending outside-alert clusters and asks whether the stricter state machine, including the lower-low failure clock when price history is available, would have filtered them before bottom_likely; it is an explanation tool, not a retroactive reliability upgrade.
?
Shows supporting details for Reclaim requirement audit. Use it as context for the surrounding score, diagnostic, or research summary.
Reclaim Requirement Audit
Reclaim Required For Bottom LikelyYes
Current Reclaim StatusMissing
Pending Clusters Missing Reclaim15
Mature Stabilisation Reclaim Blockers5
Historical Reclaim Blocker Cluster Ids16, 18, 19, 20, 21
Next Data TaskAdd Or Validate Pit Safe Cost Basis Reclaim Inputs
Required Inputs
- price_vs_realized_price
- price_vs_sth_realized_price
Current Missing Reclaim Inputs
- price_vs_realized_price
- price_vs_sth_realized_price
Cost-basis reclaim is the final state-machine confirmation layer after stabilisation; adding or validating it is a guard-design data task, not a reliability upgrade by itself.
?
Shows supporting details for Reclaim input availability audit. Use it as context for the surrounding score, diagnostic, or research summary.
Reclaim Input Availability Audit
Input ReadinessMissing Required Reclaim Inputs
ChartInspect Metrics Seen13
Available Required InputsNone
Missing Required InputsPrice Vs Realized Price, Price Vs STH Realized Price
Next Data TaskSource Or Derive Pit Safe Realized Price Reclaim Series
| Input | Status | PIT Safe | Latest Date |
|---|
| Price Vs Realized Price | Missing | No | Unknown |
| Price Vs STH Realized Price | Missing | No | Unknown |
Cost-basis reclaim input availability audit: this identifies missing data needed for the reclaim gate and is not a signal upgrade or reliability upgrade by itself.
?
Shows whether missing reclaim inputs are directly available or only derivable candidates requiring provider-definition, formula, cross-provider, and PIT validation.
Reclaim Source Candidate Audit
Reclaim ReadyNo
PIT Safe Reclaim Inputs AvailableNo
Substitute Metrics AllowedNo
Direct Required Inputs AvailableNone
Derivable Unvalidated InputsPrice Vs Realized Price, Price Vs STH Realized Price
Next Data TaskDerive Candidate Reclaim Series Then Cross Provider Validate
| Required Input | Direct Source | Derivation Candidate | Source Metrics | Candidate Status | PIT Safe | Validation Required |
|---|
| Price Vs Realized Price | Missing | Derive From NUPL Formula | NUPL | Derivable Unvalidated | No | Confirm Provider Definition And Cross Provider Formula |
| Price Vs STH Realized Price | Missing | Derive From STH NUPL Formula | STH NUPL | Derivable Unvalidated | No | Confirm Provider Definition And Cross Provider Formula |
NUPL/STH-NUPL derivations are candidates for deriving cost-basis reclaim ratios, not substitutes for validated reclaim inputs. They must pass provider-definition, formula, cross-provider, and point-in-time checks before use.
?
Derives diagnostic candidate reclaim ratios from NUPL-like metrics while keeping them blocked from scoring until formula, provider, cross-provider, and PIT checks pass.
Reclaim Candidate Derivation Preview
Series StatusCandidate Only Not Signal Input
Reclaim ReadyNo
PIT SafeNo
Formula Assumptionprice_to_cost_basis_ratio = 1 / (1 - nupl_like_value)
Latest Candidate Reclaim PassedNo
Next Validation TaskCross Provider Validate Candidate Reclaim Formula
| Required Input | Source Metric | Latest Date | Latest Source Value | Latest Candidate Ratio | Latest Reclaim Status | Rows Derived | Promotion Status |
|---|
| Price Vs Realized Price | NUPL | 2026 08 18 | 0.18 | 1.22 | Above Cost Basis | 5001 | Blocked Pending Formula And Cross Provider Validation |
| Price Vs STH Realized Price | STH NUPL | 2026 08 18 | -0.05 | 0.96 | Below Cost Basis | 5001 | Blocked Pending Formula And Cross Provider Validation |
Derived reclaim ratios are diagnostic candidate series only, not promoted signal inputs. Formula assumptions, vendor definitions, cross-provider agreement, and point-in-time availability must be validated first.
?
Applies the derived candidate ratios to the reclaim gate while explicitly blocking promotion when either ratio fails or validation is incomplete.
Candidate Reclaim Gate Audit
Candidate Reclaim PassedNo
Signal Reclaim Gate StatusBlocked Candidate Reclaim Not Passed
Promotion AllowedNo
PIT SafeNo
Required Candidate InputsPrice Vs Realized Price, Price Vs STH Realized Price
Next Validation TaskCross Provider Validate Candidate Reclaim Formula
Blockers
- price_vs_sth_realized_price_candidate_below_cost_basis
- formula_and_cross_provider_validation_missing
- point_in_time_validation_missing
| Required Input | Candidate Ratio | Candidate Status | Passes Candidate Gate | PIT Safe |
|---|
| Price Vs Realized Price | 1.22 | Above Cost Basis | Yes | No |
| Price Vs STH Realized Price | 0.96 | Below Cost Basis | No | No |
Candidate reclaim gate cannot promote into the live signal until both candidate ratios pass and formula, cross-provider, and point-in-time validation are complete.
?
Checks whether NUPL/STH-NUPL provider definitions actually support the candidate cost-basis reclaim formula. Formula validation alone still cannot promote a signal without cross-provider and PIT replay.
Cost-Basis Reclaim Validation Harness
Provider Definition Registry StatusLoaded
Overall StatusBlocked
Formula Validated Count0
Promotion AllowedNo
Next Validation TaskConfirm Provider Definitions Then Compare Cross Provider Reclaim Crossings
| Required Input | Source Metric | Provider Definition Status | Formula Status | Candidate Ratio | Candidate Only | Promotion Allowed | Blockers |
|---|
| Price Vs Realized Price | NUPL | Needs Manual Review | Blocked Definition Ambiguous | 1.22 | Yes | No | Aggregate Denominator Not Confirmed As Market Cap, Aggregate Numerator Not Confirmed As Market Cap Minus Realized Cap, Aggregate Provider Definition Not Confirmed, Aggregate Smoothing Unknown Or Nonzero, Aggregate Supply Basis Not Confirmed Same, Aggregate Timestamp Convention Unknown, Cross Provider Validation Missing, Point In Time Validation Missing |
| Price Vs STH Realized Price | STH NUPL | Needs Manual Review | Blocked Definition Ambiguous | 0.96 | Yes | No | Cross Provider Validation Missing, Point In Time Validation Missing, STH Cohort Boundary Not Confirmed Age Days Lt 155, STH Cohort Cutoff Not Confirmed 155 Days, STH Denominator Not Confirmed As STH Market Cap, STH Numerator Not Confirmed As STH Market Cap Minus STH Realized Cap, STH Provider Definition Not Confirmed, STH Smoothing Unknown Or Nonzero, STH Supply Basis Not Confirmed Same, STH Timestamp Convention Unknown |
Definition Checks
| Required Input | Denominator | Numerator | Supply Basis | Cohort Cutoff Days | Smoothing | Timestamp Convention |
|---|
| Price Vs Realized Price | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
| Price Vs STH Realized Price | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Candidate only — not a signal input. Formula validation is necessary but insufficient; cross-provider validation and PIT replay must also pass before any reclaim candidate can be promoted.
?
Compares candidate reclaim ratios against independent provider exports and crossing dates. Planned/missing exports keep promotion blocked; passing numeric checks still require PIT replay.
Cross-Provider Reclaim Validation
Registry StatusLoaded
Overall StatusBlocked Cross Provider Incomplete
Source Count6
Ready Source Count1
Validated Required Inputs0
Provider Pass Counts{'price_vs_realized_price': 0, 'price_vs_sth_realized_price': 0}
Independent Family Counts{'price_vs_realized_price': 0, 'price_vs_sth_realized_price': 0}
Promotion AllowedNo
Next Validation TaskAdd Two Independent Exports Per Reclaim Input Then Run Pit Replay
| Provider | Required Input | Mode | Source Status | Comparison Status | Overlap Days | Median Abs % Error | P95 Abs % Error | Crossing Disagreements | Used In Signal | Blockers |
|---|
| Coinmetrics Community | Price Vs Realized Price | Direct Ratio Field | Export Available | Fail Numeric Or Crossing Tolerance | 5000 | 0.36 | 2.09 | 9 | No | Cross Provider Numeric Tolerance Not Passed, Point In Time Validation Missing, Second Independent Provider Missing |
| Blockchaincom | Price Vs Realized Price | Direct Ratio Field | Candidate Cross Check Available | Blocked Source Not Available | 0 | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | No | Point In Time Validation Missing, Provider Export Missing, Second Independent Provider Missing |
| Glassnode | Price Vs Realized Price | Direct Ratio Comparison | Planned Paid Reference | Blocked Source Not Available | 0 | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | No | Point In Time Validation Missing, Provider Export Missing, Second Independent Provider Missing |
| Glassnode | Price Vs STH Realized Price | Direct Ratio Comparison | Planned Paid Reference | Blocked Source Not Available | 0 | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | No | Point In Time Validation Missing, Provider Export Missing, Second Independent Provider Missing |
| Bitbo Or Newhedge Or Bmp | Price Vs STH Realized Price | Direct Ratio Comparison | Blocked No Free No Key Export Confirmed | Blocked Source Not Available | 0 | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | No | Point In Time Validation Missing, Provider Export Missing, Second Independent Provider Missing |
| Raw Utxo Pipeline Future | Price Vs STH Realized Price | Raw Utxo Computed Ratio | Research Project Not Source | Blocked Source Not Available | 0 | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | No | Point In Time Validation Missing, Provider Export Missing, Second Independent Provider Missing |
Cross-provider validation is a blocker audit only. Even passing comparisons cannot affect live score, state, bottom_likely, alerting, or reliability until provider definitions and PIT replay also pass.
?
Records immutable provider export hashes, schemas, date coverage, and revision mismatches. Missing or changed exports block validation and never affect the live signal.
Provider Export Manifest
Overall StatusBlocked Exports Missing Or Revised
Source Count6
Export Count1
Missing Export Count5
Revision Mismatch Count0
Promotion AllowedNo
Next Validation TaskCapture Provider Exports With Downloaded At And Sha256 Then Run Pit Replay
| Provider | Required Input | Source Status | Format | Rows | Start Date | End Date | Manifest Status | SHA256 | Schema Hash | Used In Signal | Blockers |
|---|
| Coinmetrics Community | Price Vs Realized Price | Export Available | Json | 5831 | 2010 07 18 | 2026 07 04 | Recorded | B28b03eaef9e0d7c9d62973bef9cd47d4c8b3a0cb527fa4c505041fcf69740e1 | F1a09502ed5c2d00f9f9e53c65695648178a1e212f1b660e0f05492d70bc31b1 | No | Point In Time Snapshot Missing, Provider Definition Validation Required |
| Blockchaincom | Price Vs Realized Price | Candidate Cross Check Available | Unknown | 0 | Unknown | Unknown | Missing Export | Unknown | Unknown | No | Point In Time Snapshot Missing, Provider Definition Validation Required, Provider Export Missing |
| Glassnode | Price Vs Realized Price | Planned Paid Reference | Unknown | 0 | Unknown | Unknown | Missing Export | Unknown | Unknown | No | Point In Time Snapshot Missing, Provider Definition Validation Required, Provider Export Missing |
| Glassnode | Price Vs STH Realized Price | Planned Paid Reference | Unknown | 0 | Unknown | Unknown | Missing Export | Unknown | Unknown | No | Point In Time Snapshot Missing, Provider Definition Validation Required, Provider Export Missing |
| Bitbo Or Newhedge Or Bmp | Price Vs STH Realized Price | Blocked No Free No Key Export Confirmed | Unknown | 0 | Unknown | Unknown | Missing Export | Unknown | Unknown | No | Point In Time Snapshot Missing, Provider Definition Validation Required, Provider Export Missing |
| Raw Utxo Pipeline Future | Price Vs STH Realized Price | Research Project Not Source | Unknown | 0 | Unknown | Unknown | Missing Export | Unknown | Unknown | No | Point In Time Snapshot Missing, Provider Definition Validation Required, Provider Export Missing |
Provider export manifests are immutable evidence records. Hash mismatches are treated as revision/backfill risk and no export can affect live score, state, alerting, or reliability without PIT snapshot replay.
?
Checks whether labelled-bottom and negative-control decision windows have immutable known-at snapshots. Missing, late, or revised snapshots block replay and promotion.
PIT Replay Readiness
Overall StatusBlocked Pit Snapshots Missing
Required Window Count6
Snapshot Count0
Covered Window Count0
Missing Window Count6
Known-At Violation Count0
Hash Mismatch Count0
Replay AllowedNo
Promotion AllowedNo
Next Validation TaskCapture Known At Snapshots For Labelled Bottom And Negative Control Windows
| Window | Type | Decision Date | Snapshot | Coverage Status | Known-At Valid | Hash Status | Missing Inputs | Used In Signal | Blockers |
|---|
| Bottom 2015 | Labelled Bottom | 2015 01 14 | Unknown | Missing Snapshot | No | Missing Snapshot | Price Vs Realized Price, Price Vs STH Realized Price | No | Pit Snapshot Missing |
| Bottom 2018 | Labelled Bottom | 2018 12 15 | Unknown | Missing Snapshot | No | Missing Snapshot | Price Vs Realized Price, Price Vs STH Realized Price | No | Pit Snapshot Missing |
| Bottom 2020 | Labelled Bottom | 2020 03 12 | Unknown | Missing Snapshot | No | Missing Snapshot | Price Vs Realized Price, Price Vs STH Realized Price | No | Pit Snapshot Missing |
| Bottom 2022 | Labelled Bottom | 2022 11 21 | Unknown | Missing Snapshot | No | Missing Snapshot | Price Vs Realized Price, Price Vs STH Realized Price | No | Pit Snapshot Missing |
| Guard 2021 Q1 | Negative Control | 2021 01 08 | Unknown | Missing Snapshot | No | Missing Snapshot | Price Vs Realized Price, Price Vs STH Realized Price | No | Pit Snapshot Missing |
| Guard 2024 ETF Hype | Negative Control | 2024 03 14 | Unknown | Missing Snapshot | No | Missing Snapshot | Price Vs Realized Price, Price Vs STH Realized Price | No | Pit Snapshot Missing |
PIT replay readiness is a blocker audit only. Snapshots must prove data was known by each decision date before reclaim, state, bottom_likely, alerting, or reliability can use the evidence.
?
Shows supporting details for Pit replay execution. Use it as context for the surrounding score, diagnostic, or research summary.
PIT Replay Execution
Overall StatusBlocked Pit Replay Inputs Not Ready
Readiness StatusBlocked Pit Snapshots Missing
Window Count6
Replayed Window Count0
Blocked Window Count6
Candidate False Positive Count0
Candidate False Negative Count0
Promotion AllowedNo
Reliability Upgrade AllowedNo
Next Validation TaskPopulate Known At Snapshots Then Execute Replay Without Promoting Results
| Window | Type | Decision Date | Snapshot | Replay Status | Gate Replayed | Reclaim Passed | Expected Bottom | Outcome | Used In Signal | Promotion Allowed | Blockers |
|---|
| Bottom 2015 | Labelled Bottom | 2015 01 14 | Unknown | Blocked Inputs Not Ready | No | No | Yes | Not Evaluated | No | No | Pit Readiness Not Passed, Pit Snapshot Missing |
| Bottom 2018 | Labelled Bottom | 2018 12 15 | Unknown | Blocked Inputs Not Ready | No | No | Yes | Not Evaluated | No | No | Pit Readiness Not Passed, Pit Snapshot Missing |
| Bottom 2020 | Labelled Bottom | 2020 03 12 | Unknown | Blocked Inputs Not Ready | No | No | Yes | Not Evaluated | No | No | Pit Readiness Not Passed, Pit Snapshot Missing |
| Bottom 2022 | Labelled Bottom | 2022 11 21 | Unknown | Blocked Inputs Not Ready | No | No | Yes | Not Evaluated | No | No | Pit Readiness Not Passed, Pit Snapshot Missing |
| Guard 2021 Q1 | Negative Control | 2021 01 08 | Unknown | Blocked Inputs Not Ready | No | No | No | Not Evaluated | No | No | Pit Readiness Not Passed, Pit Snapshot Missing |
| Guard 2024 ETF Hype | Negative Control | 2024 03 14 | Unknown | Blocked Inputs Not Ready | No | No | No | Not Evaluated | No | No | Pit Readiness Not Passed, Pit Snapshot Missing |
PIT replay execution is validation-only. Even clean replay rows are not live proof and cannot change score, state, bottom_likely, alerting, reclaim promotion, or reliability without cross-provider validation and future out-of-sample evidence.
?
Shows supporting details for Sth self Collection readiness. Use it as context for the surrounding score, diagnostic, or research summary.
STH Self-Collection Readiness
Overall StatusResearch Only Connector Smoke Passed
Collector StatusConnector Smoke Passed
Collector CompletenessStale Not Tip Aligned
Real Data ConnectorBlockstream Public Api Plus Coinmetrics Priceusd
Price SourceCoinmetrics Community Priceusd
Forward Index DBpostgresql://***
First Snapshot Date2026 08 19
30-Day Shadow Date2026 09 17
90-Day Shadow Date2026 11 16
Full 155-Day Cohort Date2027 01 20
Meaningful Shadow Series30 To 90
Out-Of-Sample RequirementFuture Bottom Like Event
Used In SignalNo
Promotion AllowedNo
Reliability Upgrade AllowedNo
Latest Connector Smoke
Smoke StatusConnector Smoke Passed
Height956700
Block Date2026 07 04
Indexed TX Count25
Output Count67
Spend Count42
Partial BlockYes
Latest Catch-Up Run
Catch-Up StatusPartial Catchup Recorded
Start Height963052
End Height963052
Tip Height Seen963064
Indexed Block Count1
Partial Any BlockNo
Latest Daily PIT Candidate Snapshot
Snapshot StatusDaily Snapshot Recorded
Snapshot IDRaw Utxo STH Forward 2026 07 06
Decision Date2026 07 06
Known At UTC2026-07-06T10:21:58Z
Downloaded At UTC2026-07-06T10:21:58Z
SHA256 HashE33ae91ec96d9f8e18749da5e8859fe69045d73fbf9f1539419d4a1f61abd6c4
Schema Hash6cd256ea86ececed1eac3060cc9851d810e1bbd4bb709179655a232158a13bd5
Coverage StatusStale Not Tip Aligned
Has Full 155 Day CoverageNo
Used In SignalNo
Promotion AllowedNo
Forward Archive Completeness
Coverage StatusStale Not Tip Aligned
Indexed Block Count28306
Full Block Count28306
Partial Block Count0
Tip Height Seen963064
Gap To Tip Blocks12
Missing Height Count0
Continuous Indexed Block Count From Tip0
Continuous Coverage Days From Tip0
Has Full 155 Day CoverageNo
Accounting Rules
- track_utxo_creation_date_and_value
- remove_outputs_spent_on_or_before_decision_date
- include_only_outputs_age_lt_155_days
- weight_cost_basis_by_value_btc_times_price_at_creation
- archive_daily_snapshot_with_downloaded_at_and_sha256
- continuous_forward_block_indexing_for_155_days_before_full_cohort_claim
Blockers
- current_vintage_is_not_pit
- full_155_day_forward_cohort_not_indexed_yet
- price_feed_versioning_required
- entity_adjustment_not_implemented
- independent_provider_comparison_missing
- future_out_of_sample_event_missing
Self-collection now has a working public block/transaction connector for forward indexing. It remains validation-only: a full 155-day STH cohort requires continuous indexing, archived price feed versions, and future out-of-sample validation.
?
Shows supporting details for Sth reclaim source discovery. Use it as context for the surrounding score, diagnostic, or research summary.
STH Reclaim Source Discovery
StatusSTH Direct Free No Key Source Still Not Confirmed
Used In SignalNo
Promotion AllowedNo
ConclusionAggregate reclaim has a free Coin Metrics candidate export; direct STH reclaim remains unresolved. The self-collected forward UTXO path remains the only current no-key STH track and must stay research-only until full cohort, provider comparison, and PIT replay are available.
| Source | Access | HTTP | Candidate Status | Finding |
|---|
| Coin Metrics Community catalog | Free No Key | 200 | Aggregate Reclaim Only Not STH Reclaim | BTC community catalog exposes aggregate NUPL and CapMVRV metrics plus STH SOPR age-band metrics, but no direct STH realized price, STH-MVRV, or STH-NUPL metric was found. |
| Blockchain.com chart API | Free No Key | 404 | Not Currently Exportable | Previously suspected MVRV/realized-price endpoints returned 404 from the VPS during this check. |
| Bitbo guessed static STH endpoint | Free No Key Guess | 404 | Not Confirmed | Guessed JSON endpoint returned 404; no confirmed no-key STH export found. |
| Bitcoin Magazine Pro STH page | Public Html Chart Page | 200 | Chart Page Only Or Requires Further Reverse Engineering | Public HTML page loads, but no stable no-key machine-readable export was confirmed in this pass. |
Source-discovery audit only. It cannot promote STH reclaim, change bottom_likely, loosen gates, or raise reliability.
?
Shows supporting details for Negative Control null tests. Use it as context for the surrounding score, diagnostic, or research summary.
Negative-Control Null Tests
Overall StatusBlocked Negative Control Noise Detected
Family Threshold5
Daily Rows Evaluated5001
Control Window Count84
Family Weighted Alert Days1075
Candidate Reclaim Alert Days0
Replay AllowedNo
Promotion AllowedNo
Reliability Upgrade AllowedNo
Next Validation TaskRun Same Negative Controls In Strict Pit Replay After Snapshots Exist
Control Groups
| Group | Windows | Windows With Alerts | Family Alert Days | Candidate Reclaim Alert Days | Verdict |
|---|
| Shifted Label Controls | 16 | 5 | 164 | 0 | Noise Detected |
| Deterministic Random Non Bottom | 64 | 15 | 911 | 0 | Noise Detected |
| Bull Market Rally Guards | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Quiet |
Sample Windows
| Window | Group | Type | Start | End | Days Evaluated | Family Alert Days | Candidate Reclaim Alert Days | Used In Signal | Promotion Allowed | Verdict |
|---|
| Shift 2015 Cycle Bottom 365d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2014 01 01 | 2014 02 28 | 59 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| Shift 2015 Cycle Bottom 180d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2014 07 05 | 2014 09 01 | 59 | 2 | 0 | No | No | Noise Detected |
| shift_2015_cycle_bottom_+180d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2015 06 30 | 2015 08 27 | 59 | 21 | 0 | No | No | Noise Detected |
| shift_2015_cycle_bottom_+365d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2016 01 01 | 2016 02 28 | 59 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| Shift 2018 Cycle Bottom 365d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2017 11 15 | 2018 02 28 | 106 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| Shift 2018 Cycle Bottom 180d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2018 05 19 | 2018 09 01 | 106 | 42 | 0 | No | No | Noise Detected |
| shift_2018_cycle_bottom_+180d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2019 05 14 | 2019 08 27 | 106 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| shift_2018_cycle_bottom_+365d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2019 11 15 | 2020 02 28 | 106 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| Shift 2020 Covid Capitulation 365d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2019 03 02 | 2019 05 01 | 61 | 19 | 0 | No | No | Noise Detected |
| Shift 2020 Covid Capitulation 180d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2019 09 03 | 2019 11 02 | 61 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| shift_2020_covid_capitulation_+180d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2020 08 28 | 2020 10 27 | 61 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| shift_2020_covid_capitulation_+365d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2021 03 01 | 2021 04 30 | 61 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| Shift 2022 Cycle Bottom 365d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2021 11 01 | 2022 01 31 | 92 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| Shift 2022 Cycle Bottom 180d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2022 05 05 | 2022 08 04 | 92 | 80 | 0 | No | No | Noise Detected |
| shift_2022_cycle_bottom_+180d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2023 04 30 | 2023 07 30 | 92 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| shift_2022_cycle_bottom_+365d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2023 11 01 | 2024 01 31 | 92 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| Random Null 001 | Deterministic Random Non Bottom | Deterministic Random Non Bottom | 2012 12 03 | 2013 03 04 | 92 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| Random Null 002 | Deterministic Random Non Bottom | Deterministic Random Non Bottom | 2012 12 27 | 2013 03 28 | 92 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| Random Null 003 | Deterministic Random Non Bottom | Deterministic Random Non Bottom | 2013 01 04 | 2013 04 05 | 92 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| Random Null 004 | Deterministic Random Non Bottom | Deterministic Random Non Bottom | 2013 01 17 | 2013 04 18 | 92 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
Negative-control/null tests evaluate shifted labelled windows, deterministic non-bottom windows, and bull-market rally guards. They are research-only and cannot promote reclaim, bottom_likely, or reliability without strict PIT replay.
?
Machine-readable taxonomy for raw, diagnostic, candidate-only, validated, and promoted inputs. Candidate-only metrics must not enter score, state, alerting, or reliability.
Validation Status Matrix
Registry StatusPass
Metric Count7
Candidate Only Count2
Promoted Candidate Metric Count0
| Metric | Status | Candidate Only | Used In Score | Used In State Machine | PIT Safe | Cross Provider Validated | Formula Validated | Blockers |
|---|
| MVRV Z Score | Raw Observed | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | Pit Replay Missing, Cross Provider Validation Missing |
| NUPL | Raw Observed | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | Pit Replay Missing, Cross Provider Validation Missing |
| Puell Multiple | Raw Observed | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | Pit Replay Missing, Cross Provider Validation Missing |
| Reserve Risk | Raw Observed | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | Pit Replay Missing, Cross Provider Validation Missing |
| SOPR | Raw Observed | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | Pit Replay Missing, Cross Provider Validation Missing |
| Price Vs Realized Price | Candidate Only | Yes | No | No | No | No | No | Formula Validation Missing, Provider Definition Unconfirmed, Cross Provider Validation Missing, Point In Time Validation Missing |
| Price Vs STH Realized Price | Candidate Only | Yes | No | No | No | No | No | Formula Validation Missing, Provider Definition Unconfirmed, Cross Provider Validation Missing, Point In Time Validation Missing |
Validation taxonomy: candidate-only metrics are research diagnostics and cannot affect score, state-machine promotion, bottom_likely, alerting, or reliability until formula, provider-definition, cross-provider, and PIT replay checks pass.
?
Shows supporting details for Signal change rules. Use it as context for the surrounding score, diagnostic, or research summary.
Signal Change Rules
Current VerdictHold At Stabilisation
Next Upgrade TriggerCost Basis Reclaim Inputs Confirmed
Next Downgrade TriggerCapitulation Or Deep Value Gate Lost
Reliability Upgrade AllowedNo
What Would Upgrade The State
| Condition | Status | Required Evidence | Effect |
|---|
| Lower Low Failure Days At Least 21 | Pass | Price remains above the post-ATH low for at least 21 days without resetting the lower-low clock. | Upgrade state from exhaustion to stabilisation only; not bottom_likely by itself. |
| Cost Basis Reclaim Inputs Confirmed | Missing | Price/realized-price and price/STH-realized-price reclaim inputs are available and pass in strict PIT mode. | Allows reclaim gate consideration after stabilisation; still requires PIT integrity. |
| Strict Pit Snapshot Replay Complete | Blocked | Known-at or archived snapshot replay proves the primary inputs were available before each historical decision date. | Can remove PIT cap pressure but does not auto-raise reliability without live proof. |
What Would Downgrade The State
| Condition | Status | Required Evidence | Effect |
|---|
| New Lower Low Resets Failure Count | Monitor | A fresh post-ATH closing low appears; lower_low_failure_days resets below the stabilisation threshold. | Keep or return state to exhaustion; suppress bottom_likely routing. |
| Capitulation Or Deep Value Gate Lost | Monitor | Loss-taking/valuation gates no longer pass on fresh source data. | Downgrade toward deep_value/capitulation/normal_bear depending on remaining gates. |
| Primary Inputs Stale Or Known After Decision | Monitor | Any primary ChartInspect/on-chain input is stale, missing, revised after the decision date, or cannot be replayed point-in-time. | Suppress or cap alerts under PIT policy. |
What Would Raise Reliability
| Condition | Status | Required Evidence | Effect |
|---|
| Future Live Capitulation Event Resolved | Blocked Until Future Outcome | A future live false-setup or capitulation event resolves after this model version was already published. | Only then can forward predictive evidence improve; pending setups do not count. |
| Cross Provider Validation Complete | Blocked | Independent provider or reproducible source confirms primary on-chain families and timing. | Can support reliability upgrade after PIT replay and live proof. |
Explicit what would change the signal rules: state upgrades need fresh confirmation gates, while reliability upgrades remain blocked until PIT replay, future live outcomes, and cross-provider validation exist.
?
Shows supporting details for Score distribution histogram. Use it as context for the surrounding score, diagnostic, or research summary.
Score Distribution Histogram
Total Days5000
Days 90+530
Days 95+168
Saturated 100 Days157
| Score Range | Days | % |
|---|
| 0 49 | 3710 | 74.20 |
| 50 69 | 452 | 9.04 |
| 70 79 | 176 | 3.52 |
| 80 89 | 132 | 2.64 |
| 90 94 | 362 | 7.24 |
| 95 99 | 11 | 0.22 |
| 100 100 | 157 | 3.14 |
Shows whether scores bunch near 90-100, which explains threshold cliffs and saturation risk.
?
Re-runs the promoted threshold at +/-5/10/15% to show whether the result is robust or fragile to small tuning changes.
Threshold Perturbation
Base Threshold95.00
VerdictRobust
| Delta % | Threshold | Detected Windows | Missed Windows | Outside Alert Days |
|---|
| -15 | 80.75 | 4 | 0 | 307 |
| -10 | 85.50 | 4 | 0 | 304 |
| -5 | 90.25 | 4 | 0 | 63 |
| 0 | 95.00 | 4 | 0 | 63 |
| 5 | 99.75 | 4 | 0 | 62 |
| 10 | 100.00 | 4 | 0 | 62 |
| 15 | 100.00 | 4 | 0 | 62 |
Perturbs the promoted threshold by +/-5/10/15% to detect fragile threshold tuning.
?
Drops correlated on-chain metric families one at a time to test whether the signal is genuinely robust or over-dependent on one duplicated evidence family.
Metric Dropout Robustness
VerdictReview Independence Not Indicator Count
Baseline Detected Windows4
Baseline Outside Alerts63
| Dropped Family | Detected Windows | Missed Windows | Outside Alert Days | Verdict |
|---|
| Drop MVRV NUPL | 0 | 4 | 0 | Depends On Family |
| Drop SOPR Family | 0 | 4 | 0 | Depends On Family |
| Drop Puell | 0 | 4 | 0 | Depends On Family |
| Drop Reserve Risk Rhodl | 0 | 4 | 0 | Depends On Family |
| Drop Supply In Profit | 4 | 0 | 63 | Survives |
| Drop Realized Loss | 4 | 0 | 63 | Survives |
Independence warning: the primary signal is not 13 independent votes. Dropout testing shows dependence on correlated on-chain families; treat this as one strong on-chain evidence cluster plus supporting diagnostics.
Drops correlated metric families one at a time to test whether the signal is genuinely robust or just a single duplicated evidence family.
?
Groups ChartInspect/on-chain metrics into correlated evidence families so 13 related metrics are not misread as 13 independent votes.
Dependency-Aware Evidence Family Audit
ChartInspect Metrics Seen13
Evidence Family Count5
Independence Adjusted Vote Count5
Metric Count Not Vote CountYes
Duplicated Onchain Vote WarningYes
Next Research TaskUse Family Level Weights Before Any Reliability Upgrade
| Family | Metrics | Present Metrics | Primary Metrics | Diagnostic Metrics | Vote Weight | Status |
|---|
| Valuation Cost Basis | 4 | MVRV Z Score, NUPL, LTH NUPL, STH NUPL | MVRV Z Score, NUPL | LTH NUPL, STH NUPL | 1 | Available Correlated Family |
| Spent Profit Loss | 5 | SOPR, LTH SOPR, STH SOPR, Net Realized Profit Loss, Realized Profit Loss | SOPR | LTH SOPR, STH SOPR, Net Realized Profit Loss, Realized Profit Loss | 1 | Available Correlated Family |
| Miner Economic Pressure | 1 | Puell Multiple | Puell Multiple | None | 1 | Available Correlated Family |
| Holder Age Value | 2 | Reserve Risk, Rhodl Ratio | Reserve Risk | Rhodl Ratio | 1 | Available Correlated Family |
| Breadth Of Pain | 1 | Supply In Profit | None | Supply In Profit | 1 | Available Correlated Family |
Dependency-aware family audit: ChartInspect/on-chain metrics are grouped as correlated evidence families, not independent votes. Reliability must not rise merely because many related metrics agree.
?
Converts raw metric triggers into one vote per evidence family, showing whether correlated metrics would inflate confirmation strength.
Family-Weighted Evidence Audit
Raw Metric Trigger Count9
Family Weighted Trigger Count5
Max Family Weighted Count6
Raw To Family Compression9 To 5
Weighted ReadinessWeighted Exhaustion Without Reclaim
Reliability Upgrade AllowedNo
Next Research TaskBacktest Family Weighted Thresholds Point In Time
| Family | Status | Metrics Triggered | Raw Triggers | Family Vote Weight | Reason |
|---|
| Valuation Cost Basis | Triggered | MVRV Z Score, NUPL, STH NUPL | 3 | 1 | deep valuation/cost-basis stress |
| Spent Profit Loss | Triggered | SOPR, STH SOPR | 2 | 1 | spent-output loss-taking or realized loss stress |
| Miner Economic Pressure | Triggered | Puell Multiple | 1 | 1 | miner/economic pressure |
| Holder Age Value | Triggered | Reserve Risk, Rhodl Ratio | 2 | 1 | holder-age value stress |
| Breadth Of Pain | Triggered | Supply In Profit | 1 | 1 | broad supply-in-profit pain |
| Cost Basis Reclaim | Missing | None | 0 | 0 | required reclaim inputs missing |
Converts raw metric triggers into family-level votes so correlated metrics cannot inflate confirmation count. This is a weighting audit, not a signal or reliability upgrade.
?
Tests family-vote thresholds against labelled bottom windows and all-history non-bottom alert density before any promotion.
Family-Weighted Threshold Backtest
Threshold UnitFamily Votes
Max Family Weighted Count6
Daily Rows Evaluated5001
Recommended Threshold StatusNo Promotable Threshold Without Reclaim
Next Research TaskAdd Reclaim Inputs Then Rerun Family Weighted Backtest
| Threshold | Detected Bottom Windows | Missed Bottom Windows | Outside Alert Days | Outside Alert Clusters | Verdict |
|---|
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 1100 | 110 | Recall With Outside Noise |
| 5 | 4 | 0 | 619 | 78 | Recall With Outside Noise |
| 6 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | Too Strict Or Reclaim Missing |
Family-weighted threshold backtest compares family-vote thresholds against labelled bottom windows and all-history non-bottom density. It must be rerun in strict point-in-time mode before promotion or reliability changes.
?
Lists observation/known-at delay assumptions, entity-adjustment risk, and backfill/revision risk for each on-chain input. This is the PIT audit scaffold, not a completed vintage replay.
Point-In-Time Data Manifest
PIT Audit CompleteNo
Required Backtest ModeKnown At Date Or Later
Alert EligibilityResearch Only Capped
Strict PIT ModeNo
Inputs Tracked13
| Input | Known-At Delay Days | Revision Risk | Entity Adjusted | Used In Score |
|---|
| LTH NUPL | 1 | Medium | No | No |
| LTH SOPR | 2 | High | Yes | No |
| MVRV Z Score | 2 | Medium | No | Yes |
| Net Realized Profit Loss | 2 | High | Yes | No |
| NUPL | 2 | Medium | No | Yes |
| Puell Multiple | 2 | Medium | No | Yes |
| Realized Profit Loss | 2 | High | Yes | No |
| Reserve Risk | 2 | Medium | No | Yes |
| Rhodl Ratio | 1 | Medium | No | No |
| SOPR | 2 | High | Yes | Yes |
suppress_or_cap_alerts_if_primary_inputs_are_missing_stale_or_known_after_decision
Records realistic known-at delays and revision/backfill risk. Until provider snapshots or vintages are archived, this is a manifest and cap, not a completed PIT audit.
?
Shadow architecture that treats bottoms as a process: capitulation, deep value, exhaustion, stabilisation, then reclaim/confirmation. It is not promoted until backtested.
ChartInspect Bottom State Machine
RoleShadow Architecture Until Backtested
Latest StateStabilisation
Bottom LikelyNo
Core Score80.00
Extended Score44.00
Lower Low Failure Days49
State-Machine Gate Table
| Gate | Status | Current Evidence | Required | PIT Safe |
|---|
| Capitulation | Pass | SOPR/STH SOPR near reset or realized loss negative | 2+ loss-taking signals | No |
| Deep Value | Pass | MVRV/NUPL deep value | valuation and cost-basis stress | No |
| Exhaustion | Pass | Puell/Reserve Risk/Supply-in-profit stress | capitulation pressure plus fading loss flow | No |
| Stabilisation | Pass | lower-low failure confirmed for 49 days | lower_low_failure_days >= 21/45/90 | Yes |
| Reclaim | Missing | missing cost-basis reclaim inputs | price/realized price and price/STH realized price reclaim | No |
| Pit Integrity | Incomplete | Manifest Only | known-at or snapshot replay | No |
Gates Passed
- capitulation
- deep_value
- exhaustion
- stabilisation
Provisional Gates
- No provisional gates recorded.
Missing Confirmation Inputs
- price_vs_realized_price
- price_vs_sth_realized_price
Shadow state-machine architecture: bottoms are treated as a process requiring capitulation, deep value, exhaustion, stabilisation, and eventually cost-basis reclaim/lower-low confirmation.
?
Checks whether each source has enough historical coverage to support promotion. A source can be useful but still not promotable.
Source Coverage Audit
| Source | Status | Archive Coverage Adequate For Ablation | Observed Days | Missing Days |
|---|
| ChartInspect | Promotable Historical Daily | Yes | 5000 | 0 |
| Combined Rows | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
| Market Prices | Promotable Historical Daily | Yes | 4308 | 0 |
| Research Rows | Not Promotable Coverage Gaps | No | 4129 | 0 |
| Social Publication Archive | Promotable Historical Windowed | Yes | Unknown | Unknown |
Archive coverage can be adequate for ablation while the signal itself remains not promoted.
?
Summarizes the archived social/news evidence and why it remains diagnostic until precision and guard-window behavior improve.
Historical Social/News Coverage
Archive StatusPromotable Historical Windowed
Source PromotableYes
Signal PromotedNo
Covered Windows15/15
Daily Social/News Rows221
Dated Items284
| Candidate | Precision | Recall | False Positives | False Negatives | Promotion Recommendation |
|---|
| ChartInspect Plus Social News Confirmation | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0 | 1 | Do Not Promote Signal |
| ChartInspect With Social News Hype Guard Filter | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0 | 1 | Do Not Promote Signal |
| Dense Social News Capitulation | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 | Do Not Promote Signal |
| Social News Stress | 0.50 | 1.00 | 4 | 0 | Do Not Promote Signal |
Social/news archive now has enough windowed historical coverage for ablation, but its keyword stress signal remains diagnostic unless it improves recall without guard-regime false positives.
?
Tracks external Bitcoin bottom frameworks and competitor-style indicators so new work is compared against known alternatives.
External Benchmark Coverage
Benchmarks Tracked13
Promoted BenchmarksChartInspect Core Onchain
Validation Issues0
| ID | Provider | Framework | Category | Priority | Next Action |
|---|
| Glassnode Profitability Bundle | Glassnode | Glassnode profitability and holder-cost-basis metrics | Onchain Profitability Bundle | 2 | Use as cross-vendor validation if API/export access is available; do not add duplicate metrics unless definitions improve guard-safe performance. |
Coverage counts are summarized in data.json; only high-value next candidates are shown here.
?
Puts the primary signal, practical strategy backtest, shadow stack, diagnostics, and public benchmark coverage into one comparison table.
Benchmark Comparison
Primary EdgeBest Guard Clean Promoted Signal
Tracked Public Benchmarks13
Promoted Public BenchmarksChartInspect Core Onchain
| Name | Role | Recall / Events | Guard / Drawdown | Verdict |
|---|
| ChartInspect On-Chain Primary | Promoted Primary | 1.00 | 0 | Best Guard Clean Promoted Signal |
| Strategy: ChartInspect Alert | Strategy Backtest | 4 / 4 | -44.30 | Practical Entry Baseline |
| Strategy: 70% Drawdown Trigger | Strategy Backtest | 3 / 4 | -43.59 | Simple Drawdown Baseline |
| Strategy: 60% Drawdown Trigger | Strategy Backtest | 4 / 4 | -57.17 | Simple Drawdown Baseline |
| Stacked Non-Social Shadow | Shadow Candidate | 1.00 | 0 | Eligible For Shadow Confirmation Review |
| Miner Capitulation Diagnostic | Diagnostic Only | Unknown | 3 | Do Not Promote Modern Regime Guard Noise |
| Price Valuation Diagnostic | Diagnostic Only | Unknown | 60 | Do Not Promote Coverage Limited Modern Guard Noise |
| Stablecoin Liquidity Diagnostic | Diagnostic Only | Unknown | 0 | Do Not Promote Coverage Limited Recall Gap |
| Derivatives Stress Diagnostic | Diagnostic Only | Unknown | 0 | Diagnostic Only |
Compares the promoted signal, strategy outcome backtests, shadow stack, diagnostics, and tracked public benchmark coverage in one table.