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Checks that every page is rendered from one canonical state object and explains the difference between the user alert regime and internal state-machine state.
Canonical State Consistency
Canonical Render ConsistencyPASS
User Alert RegimeBottom Likely
Internal ChartInspect StateStabilisation
Bottom LikelyNo
Lower Low Failure Days49
Active Reliability Cap7.50
State Hash2936aff77a650ef0
| Check | Status | Detail |
|---|
| Watch Vs Exhaustion Explained | Pass | User alert regime=bottom_likely; internal ChartInspect state=stabilisation |
| Lower Low Canonicalized | Pass | canonical=49; monitor=49 |
| Bottom Likely Consistent | Pass | bottom_likely remains false/no |
| Candidate Metrics Not Promoted | Pass | promoted candidates=[] |
| Reliability Cap Present | Pass | active cap=7.5 |
All pages are rendered from one dashboard data object and share the canonical_state block. Watch is the user alert regime; Exhaustion is the internal ChartInspect state-machine state.
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Shadow-only ensemble readout. It combines ChartInspect with non-social diagnostics for observation, but it does not change live alert routing.
Live Stacked Shadow Signal
StatusShadow Active
CandidateChart Plus Non Social Diagnostics
Shadow Score41.45
Shadow Threshold70.00
Shadow AlertNo
Primary Alert UnchangedYes
Signal PromotedNo
ChartInspect Score80.00
Diagnostic Mean31.81
Backtest WF Alert Days77 vs baseline 115
Promotion Readiness
Promotion ReadyNo
Clean Shadow Runs0 / 30
Current Run CleanNo
Next StageShadow Observation
Review RequiredYes
Auto PromoteNo
- derivatives diagnostic is stale or missing
- price diagnostic is stale or missing
- stablecoin diagnostic is stale or missing
- miner diagnostic is stale or missing
| Source | Date | Score | Threshold | Flagged | Included |
|---|
| Derivatives | 2026 07 03 | 0.00 | 95.00 | No | Yes |
| Miner | 2026 07 02 | 48.50 | 75.00 | No | Yes |
| Price | 2026 07 03 | 51.18 | 50.00 | Yes | Yes |
| Social Daily | 2026 06 27 | 29.25 | 75.00 | No | No |
| Stablecoin | 2026 07 03 | 27.56 | 70.00 | No | Yes |
Shadow-only: shown beside the primary score for live observation. It does not affect bottom_score, regime, suppression, or alert routing.
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Shows which evidence layers are primary, shadow-only, diagnostic-only, or excluded. Promotion stays manual-review only and auto-promotion remains disabled.
Independent Confirmation Gates
Auto PromoteNo
Manual Review RequiredYes
Next Gate30 clean shadow runs, fresh diagnostics, no false shadow alerts, and manual review before any confirmation role change.
| Layer | Role | Status | Progress / Coverage | Reason |
|---|
| ChartInspect On-Chain | Primary | Promoted Primary | — | |
| Non-Social Stacked Shadow | Shadow Confirmation | Shadow Active | 0 / 30 | |
| Miner Capitulation | Diagnostic Only | Historically Covered Diagnostic | 4 / 4 bottom windows | Do Not Promote Modern Regime Guard Noise |
| Price Valuation | Diagnostic Only | Coverage Limited Diagnostic | 3 / 4 bottom windows | Do Not Promote Coverage Limited Modern Guard Noise |
| Stablecoin Liquidity | Diagnostic Only | Late History Only Diagnostic | 3 / 4 bottom windows | Do Not Promote Coverage Limited Recall Gap |
| Derivatives Stress | Diagnostic Only | Late History Only Diagnostic | 2 / 4 bottom windows | Diagnostic Only |
| Social / News | Excluded From Promotion | Context Only | — | Sparse/windowed and guard-noisy social/news evidence stays out of promotable stacks until continuous daily evidence proves clean. |
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These are blockers and thresholds, not separate signals. Each small box names the evidence that would have to improve before that score can rise, such as deeper drawdown, stronger capitulation, wider source coverage, fresher data, or cleaner market stress. Use this section to understand why the dashboard is not more bullish today.
What Would Raise Each Score?
Cycle Structure
- months since cycle top 8.0: 12+ is stronger
- months since last halving 26.0: 18–36 has matched prior bear lows
Market Capitulation
- drawdown from ATH 49.0%: severe starts ~60%, deep ~75%
- days since ATH 316: 300+ is stronger
- lower-low failure days 49: 21–45+ suggests stabilization
- price / 200W MA 1.00 if available: near/below 1.0 is historically interesting
Publication Quality
- practical article ratio 44.0%: higher indicates useful builder/custody coverage
- dismissal ratio 44.0%: higher indicates boredom/disbelief
- hype article ratio 0.0%: low hype keeps the signal clean
Social Capitulation
- posts percentile 10.0%: lower is more washed out
- despair/apathy ratio 12.0%: 20%+ is stronger capitulation
- hype ratio 8.0%: near zero supports dead-energy conditions
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Cycle, market, publication, and social are grouped evidence buckets behind the headline score. Cycle covers where Bitcoin sits in the halving and bear-market rhythm. Market covers price action, volatility, drawdown, liquidity, and stress. Publication covers whether mainstream/research coverage looks bored, dismissive, useful, or hype-heavy. Social covers public attention, despair, hype, and dead-energy conditions. These bullets explain the current reading; they are not separate alert buttons and do not individually promote a signal.
Reasoning Signals
Cycle
- halving-cycle timing is consistent with prior bear-market lows
Market
- cycle has spent a long time below ATH
- volatility has compressed after the selloff
- price has stopped making aggressive new lows
Publication
- publications skew toward practical/useful work
- mainstream coverage is dismissive or bored
- hype publications are scarce
Social
- social activity is in the bottom 15% of the past year
- hype language is washed out