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Checks that every page is rendered from one canonical state object and explains the difference between the user alert regime and internal state-machine state.
Canonical State Consistency
Canonical Render ConsistencyPASS
User Alert RegimeBottom Likely
Internal ChartInspect StateStabilisation
Bottom LikelyNo
Lower Low Failure Days49
Active Reliability Cap7.50
State Hash2936aff77a650ef0
| Check | Status | Detail |
|---|
| Watch Vs Exhaustion Explained | Pass | User alert regime=bottom_likely; internal ChartInspect state=stabilisation |
| Lower Low Canonicalized | Pass | canonical=49; monitor=49 |
| Bottom Likely Consistent | Pass | bottom_likely remains false/no |
| Candidate Metrics Not Promoted | Pass | promoted candidates=[] |
| Reliability Cap Present | Pass | active cap=7.5 |
All pages are rendered from one dashboard data object and share the canonical_state block. Watch is the user alert regime; Exhaustion is the internal ChartInspect state-machine state.
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Machine-readable taxonomy for raw, diagnostic, candidate-only, validated, and promoted inputs. Candidate-only metrics must not enter score, state, alerting, or reliability.
Validation Status Matrix
Registry StatusPass
Metric Count7
Candidate Only Count2
Promoted Candidate Metric Count0
| Metric | Status | Candidate Only | Used In Score | Used In State Machine | PIT Safe | Cross Provider Validated | Formula Validated | Blockers |
|---|
| MVRV Z Score | Raw Observed | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | Pit Replay Missing, Cross Provider Validation Missing |
| NUPL | Raw Observed | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | Pit Replay Missing, Cross Provider Validation Missing |
| Puell Multiple | Raw Observed | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | Pit Replay Missing, Cross Provider Validation Missing |
| Reserve Risk | Raw Observed | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | Pit Replay Missing, Cross Provider Validation Missing |
| SOPR | Raw Observed | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | Pit Replay Missing, Cross Provider Validation Missing |
| Price Vs Realized Price | Candidate Only | Yes | No | No | No | No | No | Formula Validation Missing, Provider Definition Unconfirmed, Cross Provider Validation Missing, Point In Time Validation Missing |
| Price Vs STH Realized Price | Candidate Only | Yes | No | No | No | No | No | Formula Validation Missing, Provider Definition Unconfirmed, Cross Provider Validation Missing, Point In Time Validation Missing |
Validation taxonomy: candidate-only metrics are research diagnostics and cannot affect score, state-machine promotion, bottom_likely, alerting, or reliability until formula, provider-definition, cross-provider, and PIT replay checks pass.
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Checks whether NUPL/STH-NUPL provider definitions actually support the candidate cost-basis reclaim formula. Formula validation alone still cannot promote a signal without cross-provider and PIT replay.
Cost-Basis Reclaim Validation Harness
Provider Definition Registry StatusLoaded
Overall StatusBlocked
Formula Validated Count0
Promotion AllowedNo
Next Validation TaskConfirm Provider Definitions Then Compare Cross Provider Reclaim Crossings
| Required Input | Source Metric | Provider Definition Status | Formula Status | Candidate Ratio | Candidate Only | Promotion Allowed | Blockers |
|---|
| Price Vs Realized Price | NUPL | Needs Manual Review | Blocked Definition Ambiguous | 1.22 | Yes | No | Aggregate Denominator Not Confirmed As Market Cap, Aggregate Numerator Not Confirmed As Market Cap Minus Realized Cap, Aggregate Provider Definition Not Confirmed, Aggregate Smoothing Unknown Or Nonzero, Aggregate Supply Basis Not Confirmed Same, Aggregate Timestamp Convention Unknown, Cross Provider Validation Missing, Point In Time Validation Missing |
| Price Vs STH Realized Price | STH NUPL | Needs Manual Review | Blocked Definition Ambiguous | 0.96 | Yes | No | Cross Provider Validation Missing, Point In Time Validation Missing, STH Cohort Boundary Not Confirmed Age Days Lt 155, STH Cohort Cutoff Not Confirmed 155 Days, STH Denominator Not Confirmed As STH Market Cap, STH Numerator Not Confirmed As STH Market Cap Minus STH Realized Cap, STH Provider Definition Not Confirmed, STH Smoothing Unknown Or Nonzero, STH Supply Basis Not Confirmed Same, STH Timestamp Convention Unknown |
Definition Checks
| Required Input | Denominator | Numerator | Supply Basis | Cohort Cutoff Days | Smoothing | Timestamp Convention |
|---|
| Price Vs Realized Price | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
| Price Vs STH Realized Price | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
Candidate only — not a signal input. Formula validation is necessary but insufficient; cross-provider validation and PIT replay must also pass before any reclaim candidate can be promoted.
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Compares candidate reclaim ratios against independent provider exports and crossing dates. Planned/missing exports keep promotion blocked; passing numeric checks still require PIT replay.
Cross-Provider Reclaim Validation
Registry StatusLoaded
Overall StatusBlocked Cross Provider Incomplete
Source Count6
Ready Source Count1
Validated Required Inputs0
Provider Pass Counts{'price_vs_realized_price': 0, 'price_vs_sth_realized_price': 0}
Independent Family Counts{'price_vs_realized_price': 0, 'price_vs_sth_realized_price': 0}
Promotion AllowedNo
Next Validation TaskAdd Two Independent Exports Per Reclaim Input Then Run Pit Replay
| Provider | Required Input | Mode | Source Status | Comparison Status | Overlap Days | Median Abs % Error | P95 Abs % Error | Crossing Disagreements | Used In Signal | Blockers |
|---|
| Coinmetrics Community | Price Vs Realized Price | Direct Ratio Field | Export Available | Fail Numeric Or Crossing Tolerance | 5000 | 0.36 | 2.09 | 9 | No | Cross Provider Numeric Tolerance Not Passed, Point In Time Validation Missing, Second Independent Provider Missing |
| Blockchaincom | Price Vs Realized Price | Direct Ratio Field | Candidate Cross Check Available | Blocked Source Not Available | 0 | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | No | Point In Time Validation Missing, Provider Export Missing, Second Independent Provider Missing |
| Glassnode | Price Vs Realized Price | Direct Ratio Comparison | Planned Paid Reference | Blocked Source Not Available | 0 | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | No | Point In Time Validation Missing, Provider Export Missing, Second Independent Provider Missing |
| Glassnode | Price Vs STH Realized Price | Direct Ratio Comparison | Planned Paid Reference | Blocked Source Not Available | 0 | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | No | Point In Time Validation Missing, Provider Export Missing, Second Independent Provider Missing |
| Bitbo Or Newhedge Or Bmp | Price Vs STH Realized Price | Direct Ratio Comparison | Blocked No Free No Key Export Confirmed | Blocked Source Not Available | 0 | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | No | Point In Time Validation Missing, Provider Export Missing, Second Independent Provider Missing |
| Raw Utxo Pipeline Future | Price Vs STH Realized Price | Raw Utxo Computed Ratio | Research Project Not Source | Blocked Source Not Available | 0 | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown | No | Point In Time Validation Missing, Provider Export Missing, Second Independent Provider Missing |
Cross-provider validation is a blocker audit only. Even passing comparisons cannot affect live score, state, bottom_likely, alerting, or reliability until provider definitions and PIT replay also pass.
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Records immutable provider export hashes, schemas, date coverage, and revision mismatches. Missing or changed exports block validation and never affect the live signal.
Provider Export Manifest
Overall StatusBlocked Exports Missing Or Revised
Source Count6
Export Count1
Missing Export Count5
Revision Mismatch Count0
Promotion AllowedNo
Next Validation TaskCapture Provider Exports With Downloaded At And Sha256 Then Run Pit Replay
| Provider | Required Input | Source Status | Format | Rows | Start Date | End Date | Manifest Status | SHA256 | Schema Hash | Used In Signal | Blockers |
|---|
| Coinmetrics Community | Price Vs Realized Price | Export Available | Json | 5831 | 2010 07 18 | 2026 07 04 | Recorded | B28b03eaef9e0d7c9d62973bef9cd47d4c8b3a0cb527fa4c505041fcf69740e1 | F1a09502ed5c2d00f9f9e53c65695648178a1e212f1b660e0f05492d70bc31b1 | No | Point In Time Snapshot Missing, Provider Definition Validation Required |
| Blockchaincom | Price Vs Realized Price | Candidate Cross Check Available | Unknown | 0 | Unknown | Unknown | Missing Export | Unknown | Unknown | No | Point In Time Snapshot Missing, Provider Definition Validation Required, Provider Export Missing |
| Glassnode | Price Vs Realized Price | Planned Paid Reference | Unknown | 0 | Unknown | Unknown | Missing Export | Unknown | Unknown | No | Point In Time Snapshot Missing, Provider Definition Validation Required, Provider Export Missing |
| Glassnode | Price Vs STH Realized Price | Planned Paid Reference | Unknown | 0 | Unknown | Unknown | Missing Export | Unknown | Unknown | No | Point In Time Snapshot Missing, Provider Definition Validation Required, Provider Export Missing |
| Bitbo Or Newhedge Or Bmp | Price Vs STH Realized Price | Blocked No Free No Key Export Confirmed | Unknown | 0 | Unknown | Unknown | Missing Export | Unknown | Unknown | No | Point In Time Snapshot Missing, Provider Definition Validation Required, Provider Export Missing |
| Raw Utxo Pipeline Future | Price Vs STH Realized Price | Research Project Not Source | Unknown | 0 | Unknown | Unknown | Missing Export | Unknown | Unknown | No | Point In Time Snapshot Missing, Provider Definition Validation Required, Provider Export Missing |
Provider export manifests are immutable evidence records. Hash mismatches are treated as revision/backfill risk and no export can affect live score, state, alerting, or reliability without PIT snapshot replay.
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Checks whether labelled-bottom and negative-control decision windows have immutable known-at snapshots. Missing, late, or revised snapshots block replay and promotion.
PIT Replay Readiness
Overall StatusBlocked Pit Snapshots Missing
Required Window Count6
Snapshot Count0
Covered Window Count0
Missing Window Count6
Known-At Violation Count0
Hash Mismatch Count0
Replay AllowedNo
Promotion AllowedNo
Next Validation TaskCapture Known At Snapshots For Labelled Bottom And Negative Control Windows
| Window | Type | Decision Date | Snapshot | Coverage Status | Known-At Valid | Hash Status | Missing Inputs | Used In Signal | Blockers |
|---|
| Bottom 2015 | Labelled Bottom | 2015 01 14 | Unknown | Missing Snapshot | No | Missing Snapshot | Price Vs Realized Price, Price Vs STH Realized Price | No | Pit Snapshot Missing |
| Bottom 2018 | Labelled Bottom | 2018 12 15 | Unknown | Missing Snapshot | No | Missing Snapshot | Price Vs Realized Price, Price Vs STH Realized Price | No | Pit Snapshot Missing |
| Bottom 2020 | Labelled Bottom | 2020 03 12 | Unknown | Missing Snapshot | No | Missing Snapshot | Price Vs Realized Price, Price Vs STH Realized Price | No | Pit Snapshot Missing |
| Bottom 2022 | Labelled Bottom | 2022 11 21 | Unknown | Missing Snapshot | No | Missing Snapshot | Price Vs Realized Price, Price Vs STH Realized Price | No | Pit Snapshot Missing |
| Guard 2021 Q1 | Negative Control | 2021 01 08 | Unknown | Missing Snapshot | No | Missing Snapshot | Price Vs Realized Price, Price Vs STH Realized Price | No | Pit Snapshot Missing |
| Guard 2024 ETF Hype | Negative Control | 2024 03 14 | Unknown | Missing Snapshot | No | Missing Snapshot | Price Vs Realized Price, Price Vs STH Realized Price | No | Pit Snapshot Missing |
PIT replay readiness is a blocker audit only. Snapshots must prove data was known by each decision date before reclaim, state, bottom_likely, alerting, or reliability can use the evidence.
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Shows supporting details for Pit replay execution. Use it as context for the surrounding score, diagnostic, or research summary.
PIT Replay Execution
Overall StatusBlocked Pit Replay Inputs Not Ready
Readiness StatusBlocked Pit Snapshots Missing
Window Count6
Replayed Window Count0
Blocked Window Count6
Candidate False Positive Count0
Candidate False Negative Count0
Promotion AllowedNo
Reliability Upgrade AllowedNo
Next Validation TaskPopulate Known At Snapshots Then Execute Replay Without Promoting Results
| Window | Type | Decision Date | Snapshot | Replay Status | Gate Replayed | Reclaim Passed | Expected Bottom | Outcome | Used In Signal | Promotion Allowed | Blockers |
|---|
| Bottom 2015 | Labelled Bottom | 2015 01 14 | Unknown | Blocked Inputs Not Ready | No | No | Yes | Not Evaluated | No | No | Pit Readiness Not Passed, Pit Snapshot Missing |
| Bottom 2018 | Labelled Bottom | 2018 12 15 | Unknown | Blocked Inputs Not Ready | No | No | Yes | Not Evaluated | No | No | Pit Readiness Not Passed, Pit Snapshot Missing |
| Bottom 2020 | Labelled Bottom | 2020 03 12 | Unknown | Blocked Inputs Not Ready | No | No | Yes | Not Evaluated | No | No | Pit Readiness Not Passed, Pit Snapshot Missing |
| Bottom 2022 | Labelled Bottom | 2022 11 21 | Unknown | Blocked Inputs Not Ready | No | No | Yes | Not Evaluated | No | No | Pit Readiness Not Passed, Pit Snapshot Missing |
| Guard 2021 Q1 | Negative Control | 2021 01 08 | Unknown | Blocked Inputs Not Ready | No | No | No | Not Evaluated | No | No | Pit Readiness Not Passed, Pit Snapshot Missing |
| Guard 2024 ETF Hype | Negative Control | 2024 03 14 | Unknown | Blocked Inputs Not Ready | No | No | No | Not Evaluated | No | No | Pit Readiness Not Passed, Pit Snapshot Missing |
PIT replay execution is validation-only. Even clean replay rows are not live proof and cannot change score, state, bottom_likely, alerting, reclaim promotion, or reliability without cross-provider validation and future out-of-sample evidence.
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Shows supporting details for Sth self Collection readiness. Use it as context for the surrounding score, diagnostic, or research summary.
STH Self-Collection Readiness
Overall StatusResearch Only Connector Smoke Passed
Collector StatusConnector Smoke Passed
Collector CompletenessStale Not Tip Aligned
Real Data ConnectorBlockstream Public Api Plus Coinmetrics Priceusd
Price SourceCoinmetrics Community Priceusd
Forward Index DBpostgresql://***
First Snapshot Date2026 08 19
30-Day Shadow Date2026 09 17
90-Day Shadow Date2026 11 16
Full 155-Day Cohort Date2027 01 20
Meaningful Shadow Series30 To 90
Out-Of-Sample RequirementFuture Bottom Like Event
Used In SignalNo
Promotion AllowedNo
Reliability Upgrade AllowedNo
Latest Connector Smoke
Smoke StatusConnector Smoke Passed
Height956700
Block Date2026 07 04
Indexed TX Count25
Output Count67
Spend Count42
Partial BlockYes
Latest Catch-Up Run
Catch-Up StatusPartial Catchup Recorded
Start Height963052
End Height963052
Tip Height Seen963064
Indexed Block Count1
Partial Any BlockNo
Latest Daily PIT Candidate Snapshot
Snapshot StatusDaily Snapshot Recorded
Snapshot IDRaw Utxo STH Forward 2026 07 06
Decision Date2026 07 06
Known At UTC2026-07-06T10:21:58Z
Downloaded At UTC2026-07-06T10:21:58Z
SHA256 HashE33ae91ec96d9f8e18749da5e8859fe69045d73fbf9f1539419d4a1f61abd6c4
Schema Hash6cd256ea86ececed1eac3060cc9851d810e1bbd4bb709179655a232158a13bd5
Coverage StatusStale Not Tip Aligned
Has Full 155 Day CoverageNo
Used In SignalNo
Promotion AllowedNo
Forward Archive Completeness
Coverage StatusStale Not Tip Aligned
Indexed Block Count28306
Full Block Count28306
Partial Block Count0
Tip Height Seen963064
Gap To Tip Blocks12
Missing Height Count0
Continuous Indexed Block Count From Tip0
Continuous Coverage Days From Tip0
Has Full 155 Day CoverageNo
Accounting Rules
- track_utxo_creation_date_and_value
- remove_outputs_spent_on_or_before_decision_date
- include_only_outputs_age_lt_155_days
- weight_cost_basis_by_value_btc_times_price_at_creation
- archive_daily_snapshot_with_downloaded_at_and_sha256
- continuous_forward_block_indexing_for_155_days_before_full_cohort_claim
Blockers
- current_vintage_is_not_pit
- full_155_day_forward_cohort_not_indexed_yet
- price_feed_versioning_required
- entity_adjustment_not_implemented
- independent_provider_comparison_missing
- future_out_of_sample_event_missing
Self-collection now has a working public block/transaction connector for forward indexing. It remains validation-only: a full 155-day STH cohort requires continuous indexing, archived price feed versions, and future out-of-sample validation.
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Shows supporting details for Sth reclaim source discovery. Use it as context for the surrounding score, diagnostic, or research summary.
STH Reclaim Source Discovery
StatusSTH Direct Free No Key Source Still Not Confirmed
Used In SignalNo
Promotion AllowedNo
ConclusionAggregate reclaim has a free Coin Metrics candidate export; direct STH reclaim remains unresolved. The self-collected forward UTXO path remains the only current no-key STH track and must stay research-only until full cohort, provider comparison, and PIT replay are available.
| Source | Access | HTTP | Candidate Status | Finding |
|---|
| Coin Metrics Community catalog | Free No Key | 200 | Aggregate Reclaim Only Not STH Reclaim | BTC community catalog exposes aggregate NUPL and CapMVRV metrics plus STH SOPR age-band metrics, but no direct STH realized price, STH-MVRV, or STH-NUPL metric was found. |
| Blockchain.com chart API | Free No Key | 404 | Not Currently Exportable | Previously suspected MVRV/realized-price endpoints returned 404 from the VPS during this check. |
| Bitbo guessed static STH endpoint | Free No Key Guess | 404 | Not Confirmed | Guessed JSON endpoint returned 404; no confirmed no-key STH export found. |
| Bitcoin Magazine Pro STH page | Public Html Chart Page | 200 | Chart Page Only Or Requires Further Reverse Engineering | Public HTML page loads, but no stable no-key machine-readable export was confirmed in this pass. |
Source-discovery audit only. It cannot promote STH reclaim, change bottom_likely, loosen gates, or raise reliability.
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Shows supporting details for Negative Control null tests. Use it as context for the surrounding score, diagnostic, or research summary.
Negative-Control Null Tests
Overall StatusBlocked Negative Control Noise Detected
Family Threshold5
Daily Rows Evaluated5001
Control Window Count84
Family Weighted Alert Days1075
Candidate Reclaim Alert Days0
Replay AllowedNo
Promotion AllowedNo
Reliability Upgrade AllowedNo
Next Validation TaskRun Same Negative Controls In Strict Pit Replay After Snapshots Exist
Control Groups
| Group | Windows | Windows With Alerts | Family Alert Days | Candidate Reclaim Alert Days | Verdict |
|---|
| Shifted Label Controls | 16 | 5 | 164 | 0 | Noise Detected |
| Deterministic Random Non Bottom | 64 | 15 | 911 | 0 | Noise Detected |
| Bull Market Rally Guards | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Quiet |
Sample Windows
| Window | Group | Type | Start | End | Days Evaluated | Family Alert Days | Candidate Reclaim Alert Days | Used In Signal | Promotion Allowed | Verdict |
|---|
| Shift 2015 Cycle Bottom 365d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2014 01 01 | 2014 02 28 | 59 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| Shift 2015 Cycle Bottom 180d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2014 07 05 | 2014 09 01 | 59 | 2 | 0 | No | No | Noise Detected |
| shift_2015_cycle_bottom_+180d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2015 06 30 | 2015 08 27 | 59 | 21 | 0 | No | No | Noise Detected |
| shift_2015_cycle_bottom_+365d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2016 01 01 | 2016 02 28 | 59 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| Shift 2018 Cycle Bottom 365d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2017 11 15 | 2018 02 28 | 106 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| Shift 2018 Cycle Bottom 180d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2018 05 19 | 2018 09 01 | 106 | 42 | 0 | No | No | Noise Detected |
| shift_2018_cycle_bottom_+180d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2019 05 14 | 2019 08 27 | 106 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| shift_2018_cycle_bottom_+365d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2019 11 15 | 2020 02 28 | 106 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| Shift 2020 Covid Capitulation 365d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2019 03 02 | 2019 05 01 | 61 | 19 | 0 | No | No | Noise Detected |
| Shift 2020 Covid Capitulation 180d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2019 09 03 | 2019 11 02 | 61 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| shift_2020_covid_capitulation_+180d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2020 08 28 | 2020 10 27 | 61 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| shift_2020_covid_capitulation_+365d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2021 03 01 | 2021 04 30 | 61 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| Shift 2022 Cycle Bottom 365d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2021 11 01 | 2022 01 31 | 92 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| Shift 2022 Cycle Bottom 180d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2022 05 05 | 2022 08 04 | 92 | 80 | 0 | No | No | Noise Detected |
| shift_2022_cycle_bottom_+180d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2023 04 30 | 2023 07 30 | 92 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| shift_2022_cycle_bottom_+365d | Shifted Label Controls | Shifted Label Control | 2023 11 01 | 2024 01 31 | 92 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| Random Null 001 | Deterministic Random Non Bottom | Deterministic Random Non Bottom | 2012 12 03 | 2013 03 04 | 92 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| Random Null 002 | Deterministic Random Non Bottom | Deterministic Random Non Bottom | 2012 12 27 | 2013 03 28 | 92 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| Random Null 003 | Deterministic Random Non Bottom | Deterministic Random Non Bottom | 2013 01 04 | 2013 04 05 | 92 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
| Random Null 004 | Deterministic Random Non Bottom | Deterministic Random Non Bottom | 2013 01 17 | 2013 04 18 | 92 | 0 | 0 | No | No | Quiet Control Window |
Negative-control/null tests evaluate shifted labelled windows, deterministic non-bottom windows, and bull-market rally guards. They are research-only and cannot promote reclaim, bottom_likely, or reliability without strict PIT replay.
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Tests futures funding and related stress signals. It is useful context but late-history coverage keeps it diagnostic-only.
Derivatives Stress Diagnostics
StatusLate History Only Diagnostic
Source PromotableNo
Signal PromotedNo
Threshold95.00
Promotion RecommendationUnknown
Funding Coverage2019-09-10 → 2026-07-03
Bottom Windows2/4
Guard Windows8/11
Guard Alert Days0
False-Positive Guard Windows0
| Candidate | Precision | Recall | True Positives | False Positives | Guard Alert Days | Promotion Recommendation |
|---|
| Binance Funding Stress | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Do Not Promote Coverage Limited |
Binance funding stress is a late-history derivatives diagnostic only; it is not promoted while early cycle coverage is missing.
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Tests miner/hash-ribbon style stress evidence across full-history and modern regimes. It remains diagnostic while guard noise exists.
Miner Capitulation Diagnostics
StatusHistorically Covered Diagnostic
Source PromotableYes
Signal PromotedNo
Threshold75.00
Promotion RecommendationDo Not Promote Modern Regime Guard Noise
Mining Data Coverage2009-01-17 → 2026-07-02
Bottom Windows4/4
Guard Windows11/11
Guard Alert Days3
False-Positive Guard Windows1
Modern RegimeModern Post 2020
Modern TP / FP / FN1 / 1 / 1
Latest Miner Stress48.4951 @ 2026-07-02
Hash Ribbon CapitulationYes
| Candidate | Precision | Recall | True Positives | False Positives | False Negatives | Guard Alert Days | Promotion Recommendation |
|---|
| Miner Stress Score | 0.67 | 0.50 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | Do Not Promote Modern Regime Guard Noise |
Miner data is split into full-history and post-2020 modern-regime evidence. It remains diagnostic-only unless modern guard noise disappears without losing bottom-window recall.
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Tests broad valuation baselines such as 2Y and 200W moving-average stress. Useful context, but broad/noisy by itself.
Price Valuation Diagnostics
StatusCoverage Limited Diagnostic
Source PromotableNo
Signal PromotedNo
Threshold50.00
Promotion RecommendationDo Not Promote Coverage Limited Modern Guard Noise
Price Data Coverage2016-09-15 → 2026-07-03
Bottom Windows3/4
Guard Windows11/11
Guard Alert Days60
False-Positive Guard Windows2
Modern RegimeModern Post 2020
Modern TP / FP / FN2 / 2 / 0
Latest Valuation Stress51.1767 @ 2026-07-03
Price / 2Y MA0.71
Price / 200W MA0.99
| Candidate | Precision | Recall | True Positives | False Positives | False Negatives | Guard Alert Days | Promotion Recommendation |
|---|
| Price Valuation Stress | 0.60 | 1.00 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 60 | Do Not Promote Coverage Limited Modern Guard Noise |
Price-only 2Y/200W baselines are reproducible context, but they remain diagnostic-only because warmup misses the 2015 window and the post-2020 split shows broad guard-regime noise.
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Tests public stablecoin supply/liquidity stress as a modern liquidity proxy. It remains diagnostic because recall and coverage are not strong enough.
Stablecoin Liquidity Diagnostics
StatusLate History Only Diagnostic
Source PromotableNo
Signal PromotedNo
Threshold70.00
Promotion RecommendationDo Not Promote Coverage Limited Recall Gap
Stablecoin Data Coverage2017-11-29 → 2026-07-03
Bottom Windows3/4
Guard Windows9/11
Guard Alert Days0
False-Positive Guard Windows0
Modern RegimeModern Post 2020
Modern TP / FP / FN1 / 0 / 1
Latest Liquidity Stress27.558 @ 2026-07-03
Stablecoin Supply309462539248.53
90D Supply Change-0.02
| Candidate | Precision | Recall | True Positives | False Positives | False Negatives | Guard Alert Days | Promotion Recommendation |
|---|
| Stablecoin Liquidity Stress | 1.00 | 0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | Do Not Promote Coverage Limited Recall Gap |
DefiLlama stablecoin supply is a public modern liquidity proxy. It remains diagnostic-only because coverage and recall are not strong enough yet.
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Shows backtest evidence for combining primary and diagnostic families. Only the non-social stack is under shadow observation.
Stacked Ensemble Diagnostics
StatusDiagnostic Shadow Candidate
Recommended Shadow CandidateChart Plus Non Social Diagnostics
Baseline CandidateChartInspect Onchain Baseline
Signal PromotedNo
Promotion RecommendationEligible For Shadow Confirmation Review
Rows4129
Date Range2015-03-15 → 2026-07-03
Top Stacks
| Candidate | Event Recall | WF Recall | Guard Days | WF Alert Days | Recommendation |
|---|
| Chart Plus Non Social Diagnostics | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0 | 77 | Eligible For Shadow Confirmation Review |
| Weighted Chart70 Non Social30 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0 | 261 | Eligible For Shadow Confirmation Review |
| Chart 50 Non Social 50 Diagnostics | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0 | 266 | Eligible For Shadow Confirmation Review |
| ChartInspect Onchain Baseline | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0 | 115 | Reference Primary Signal |
| Chart Or Two Diagnostics | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0 | 149 | Do Not Promote No Incremental Edge Vs ChartInspect |
Candidate Details
| Candidate | Event Recall | Walk Forward Event Recall | Alert Days | Walk Forward Alert Days | Guard Alert Days | False Positive Guard Windows | Promotion Recommendation |
|---|
| Any Signal Stack | 1.00 | 1.00 | 411 | 399 | 63 | 3 | Do Not Promote Guard Noise |
| Chart 50 Non Social 50 Diagnostics | 1.00 | 1.00 | 88 | 266 | 0 | 0 | Eligible For Shadow Confirmation Review |
| Chart Or Two Diagnostics | 1.00 | 1.00 | 160 | 149 | 0 | 0 | Do Not Promote No Incremental Edge Vs ChartInspect |
| Chart Plus Any Diagnostic | 0.75 | 1.00 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 0 | Do Not Promote Recall Gap Vs ChartInspect |
| Chart Plus Non Social Diagnostics | 1.00 | 1.00 | 44 | 77 | 0 | 0 | Eligible For Shadow Confirmation Review |
| ChartInspect Onchain Baseline | 1.00 | 1.00 | 126 | 115 | 0 | 0 | Reference Primary Signal |
| Diagnostic Mean Confirmation | 1.00 | 1.00 | 39 | 106 | 0 | 0 | Do Not Promote Diagnostics Only No Primary Onchain Anchor |
| Social Inclusive Any Signal Stack | 1.00 | 1.00 | 436 | 416 | 87 | 10 | Do Not Promote Social Coverage Not Continuous Daily |
Non-social stacks use ChartInspect plus miner, valuation, stablecoin, and derivatives diagnostics. Sparse social/news rows are excluded from promotable stacks.